Find EV+ Bets Instantly with The Value Scanner

Purpose

The Value Scanner is designed to help you quickly spot high-potential betting opportunities across hundreds of markets. Instead of manually digging through stats, the scanner highlights bets where the numbers suggest there's good value — all backed by our robust, data-driven models. Whether you're after consistency or looking to uncover hidden gems the Value Scanner lets you choose your preferred sample size of either 5, 15 or 25 last games making it easier to find trends or just pure statistical bets. The Value Scanner gives you a clear edge whether a bet is worth looking further into with our other research tools or not.

Backtest

All of our models are thoroughly back tested using historical data, and over time, they’ve consistently shown to provide value. This means the Value Scanner isn't just based on theory — it's proven to work. However, no model can account for every detail, like last-minute lineup changes or tactical shifts. That’s why we recommend using Propsdata’s other tools alongside the scanner. A deeper dive into stats and context can give you the full picture and help you make even smarter betting decisions, this will improve your results over time 100%.

Markets

At the moment the Value Scanner checks the following markets for potential value bets and the list is only going to be growing from here:

• Team
  
  • Shots
  • Shots on target
  • Corners
  • Cards
  • Tackles
  • Fouls
  • Offsides
• Player
  
  • Shots
  • Shots on target
  • Fouls
  • Cards

Certain markets are easier for the model to beat (the bookies on) than others, for example the corner market is very big (in terms of turnover compared to shots, tackles etc.) on certain asian bookies which is finetuning the corner odds on all bookmakers more than the other markets on this list making corners maybe the hardest market to beat here.

How Our Models Work – Simplified

Team Model

To estimate how many shots (or other stat) a team will take in an upcoming match, we use a model based on a statistical assumption — that the number of shots follows something similar or at least close to a Poisosn distribution. It has one parameter — λ, the expected number of occurrences. It’s not always a perfect assumption, but owhen cmbined with the filters in our tool we get pretty accurate predictions over time. Our model makes finding value in the sports betting market much easier than to only use hitrate as the main criteria for whether a bet contains value or not.

The model aims to answer the question:
"If Team X plays at home against Team Y – how many shots can we expect X to take?"

We use the following formula:
λ = E[X] = a × f

• a represents Team X’s offensive strength at home.
  
  
• f is an adjustment factor that reflects how poor Team Y is at defending when playing away, compared to the league average.
  
  

The f factor is calculated as:

“Average number of shots conceded by Team Y away” divided by “The league’s average number of shots conceded away”.

We use data from recent matches, up to 15 games to get a current and relevant view without relying too much on potentially outdated trends and data.

Differences between tools:

• In the Propsdata tool, we also use an exponential moving average in our calculations which means that more recent matches carry more weight than older ones.
  
  
• In the scanner, we use a “winsorized average”, which reduces the impact of outliers (e.g., a team conceding 25 shots in a chaotic match). This makes the model more robust and is perfect when looking for potential value in 100s of different markets at the same time.
  
  

Player Model

The player model works in a similar way but is tailored to individual performance:

This time the model aims to answer the question:
"If player X plays at home against Team Y – how many shots can we expect player X to shoot?"

λ = E[player X] = a × f

• a is the player's own average number of shots from recent matches.
  
  
• f is the same type of adjustment factor — but here, we compare how many shots Team Y concedes (away) with the league’s overall average (both home and away). This partially compensates for home/away effects.
  
  

For player stats we find it less important whether the match is played at home or away — instead, we focus on recent form, just like with the teams.

Different calculations depending on the tool:

• In the Propsdata tool, we use a trend-based average.
  
  
• In the scanner, we use a “winsorized average" to reduce the effect of extreme outliers.

We Learn Over Time

One of the biggest strengths of our model is that we save nearly all bets and results. This allows us to backtest our models: we can review how accurate our predictions were and adjust the model accordingly. This means the system constantly improves and adapts to reflect how things really are and we can not wait for what the next season holds for Propsdata.io users. When we make changes to the models we will always share this information and be transparent with all of our users.

Conclusion

Our models, both for teams and individual players, are built on simple yet powerful statistical principles, fine-tuned with practical adjustments to reflect real-world performance. By combining smart filtering, recent form, and methods to handle outliers, we create reliable and dynamic predictions. Most importantly, by continuously tracking outcomes and updating our models, we ensure they evolve over time — giving Propsdata.io users a consistent edge in finding value across the sports betting market.

Why Use Propsdata for EV+ Football Betting?

✔ Data Visualization – No need for multiple sources, all key betting stats in one place presented with visual graphs.
✔ Identify Winning Trends Instantly – Find profitable bets using advanced statistical models.
✔ Maximize Profits – Always presented with the best available sportsbook odds.
✔ Perfect for Football Props & EV+ Betting – Whether you bet on player shots, tackles, fouls, or team stats, Propsdata helps you make smarter bets and profitable ones.

If you're serious about EV+ betting, football props, and maximizing your returns, Propsdata is the must-have tool for data-driven sports betting success.